The overall 12-week cancellation rate would be 72♳ per cent. Most would be operations for benign disease (90♲ per cent, 25 638 922 of 28 404 603). The best estimate was that 28 404 603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID-19 (2 367 050 operations per week). The 12-week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate the total number of cancelled operations. This case mix was applied to country-level surgical volumes. Elective surgical case-mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (surgery for cancer versus benign disease), were determined. A Bayesian β-regression model was used to estimate 12-week cancellation rates for 190 countries. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID-19.Ī global expert response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally.
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